Barack Obama on his ability to win in November vs. Hillary Clinton (transcript via TPM, emphasis mine):
Brody: Will Hillary be a drag for down-ticket races as a presidential candidate?
Obama: I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining democratic candidates. That's just a fact and there are some who will not vote for her. If you look at the results in Nevada, for example, she eked out the popular vote victory over me, but I ended up winning more delegates because she got almost all of her votes from Clark County, Las Vegas and some of the traditional democratic areas. We got votes there, but we also got votes in northern Nevada and rural conservative regions of the state that traditionally don't vote Democratic, but were excited about my campaign.I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her. Now the question is can she get the people who voted for me? And I think that describes sort of one of the choices that people have, just a practical choice, as they move forward.
Don't be so sure Senator.
As Kevin Drum notes, the most recent LA Times poll shows that Clinton does better than Obama against McCain because she holds onto more democrats. As Kevin points out, the Times poll indicates that Clinton would beat McCain by four points, 46-42. Obama loses 42-41. These aren't that big a difference and clearly either Clinton or Obama have a chance to win (or lose) against McCain as things stand now.
However, the reason why Clinton polls better is that she wins 83 percent of Democratic primary voters. Obama only wins 74 percent. Clinton and McCain evenly split the independent vote (39-39), Obama and McCain also evenly split the indy vote (37-37). McCain beats Clinton among Republicans 74-13 and Obama by 81-12.
Interestingly, more Democrats are undecided with Obama than they are with Clinton. More Republicans are undecided with Clinton than Obama. There is a fairly large pool of undecided independents with Obama (much more than with Clinton) and perhaps he would pick up some of these voters.
Personally, I think Clinton or Obama are electable and whoever the nominee is will have my vote in November. However, there's been a lot of chatter about how Obama can win voters that Clinton cannot, but will automatically keep Clinton's voters. That's not necessarily true. Obama will need to win over Clinton's voters every bit as much as Clinton will need to win over Obama's.
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